Even before the COVID-19 outbreak, I fully expected Democrats to make a play for Texas. As I wrote last year, Texas Republicans will pay dearly for Ted Cruz’s incompetent Senate re-election campaign:
”As devastating as 2018 was for Texas Republicans, it could have been worse. The prevailing wisdom, up until election night, was that Texas was a reliably red state. It is quite likely that scores of Democrat leaning independents stayed home thinking that their vote would not affect the outcome. This is the greatest damage Cruz has done by allowing Beto to draw blood. Democrats now know that Texas is within their reach. In the future, Democrats will pour millions of dollars and Republicans will be forced to spend unprecedented amounts of money defending their turf. No longer Democrat leaning independents will abstain from the polls. Add to the mix the fast changing demographics and a clear picture of looming disaster for the TX GOP appears. Cruz campaigned on being as tough as Texas. Instead, he has made life very tough for Texas Republicans. “
The latest poll seems to indicate my analysis was on point. Texas is in play:
Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in a dead heat in the race for Texas, signaling that the Lone Star State is evolving into a presidential battleground.
A new Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler poll shows that Trump and Biden are backed by 43% of poll respondents, with 5% opting for “other” candidates and only 9% undecided. Trump’s overall approval rating was 45%.
A February survey had Trump with a one-point lead over Biden, with 11% choosing neither.
The poll of 1,183 registered voters was conducted April 18-27 with a margin of error of +/- 2.85 percentage points. The survey asked additional questions of 447 registered voters who indicated they voted in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of +/- 4.64%.
The new poll suggests that with a significant investment from Biden and national Democrats, Texas could become a swing state where Trump has to pour in resources to defend.
I am sure Trump supporters will respond by saying, “the polls were wrong in 2016”. It’s not 2016. Biden is not Hillary. Trump and the GOP are in deep trouble.
