It’s an odd way to begin a “toldja so” post. i.e. starting off admitting being wrong. Nevertheless, I misjudged the impact that abortion would have on the 2022 mid-term elections. I thought high inflation and Biden’s low approval rating would be front and center in the voters’ mind. Instead,
Abortion access ultimately proved to be a powerful force in the 2022 midterm elections, lifting Democrats in battleground states and helping to weaken the anticipated Republican wave into a ripple.
In the five states where the issue was directly on the ballot, every contest leaned in favor of protecting abortion rights — even in heavily Republican states like Kentucky and Montana.
In Pennsylvania and Michigan, voters ranked abortion access as their top concern, outpacing inflation. That dynamic helped propel Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman to victory, flipping a U.S. Senate seat from Republicans. And in Michigan, an amendment to protect abortion rights easily passed. Campaigning on the issue, Democrats kept the governorship and won control of the state legislature for the first time in nearly 30 years.
As far back as 2011, I urged the GOP to rethink its position on abortion. It was clear to me that,
After 40 years of inflammatory language about killing babies, voters still believe that government has no business intruding in such private matters. That one group does not have the right to use government to impose their religious beliefs on others; that women do not lose their rights as individuals just because they become pregnant.
Much of the anger against Roe was based on a belief that the Supreme Court had stripped away the right of the people to decide the issue of abortion. At some level it was accurate but at another level it was far from the truth. Roe never prevented the people from having a say via ballot initiatives. As a matter of fact, several states and at least one municipal authority allowed their voters to voice their opinion on the matter. The voters defeated all efforts to restrict or ban abortion. In red South Dakota, voters defeated ballot initiatives twice. In deep red Mississippi, a personhood amendment to the state constitution was defeated 58% to 42%. If banning abortion can’t win in Mississippi, it can’t win anywhere.
Overturning Roe is the singular achievement of the conservative movement in recent history. However, once Republicans were handed victory they didn’t know what to do. It was like the proverbial dog that catches the car. Lindsey Graham proposed to pass a federal law restricting abortion after 15 weeks. Wait a minute! I thought the whole point of overturning Roe was to let states and the people decide the abortion issue. After the Graham proposal failed to gain any traction, the GOP has gone silent on abortion. Their only victory in decades and can’t even brag about it.
But there is light at the end of the tunnel for the GOP. The next time the Democrats control Congress and the White House, they will codify Roe at the federal level. Kavanaugh and Roberts have already signaled that they would deem constitutional any legislation passed by Congress regarding abortion. Once Roe is back on the books, the GOP will return to its comfort zone: impotently braying about saving babies.
