Since the beginning of the year — January 2nd, to be precise — I have been on the record predicting a Joe Biden/Amy Klobuchar ticket. Here is the evidence, in case you don’t believe me:
Even during the darkest days of the Biden campaign, when he was coming in fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire, I stuck to my prediction while the “experts” were declaring Uncle Joe finished. My persistence paid off. Biden won the nomination early and with relative ease. He was always the one to bet on for one simple reason: he is the perfect compromise candidate. He might not be anybody’s favorite, but he is somebody everybody — other than the Bernie Bros — can accept.
Frankly, it should have been obvious to the pundits why Biden was going to be the nominee. The Democratic Party is a center-left party. Yes, during the primaries, in 2016 and again in 2020, the progressive wing led by Bernie Sanders made a lot of noise. They have an immense presence on social media. However, as the primaries have shown, having a large presence on Twitter does not translate to a winning vote count on Election Day. Most voters are older and tend not to spend much time in the social media bubble.
Moreover, when one looks at polling data, progressives account for only about a quarter of the Democratic primary electorate, which is essentially the same share of the vote Bernie received this year. The Democratic Party has nominated center-left candidates since the 1990s: Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton. Obama had the appearance of being a departure from the norm primarily because of his race and unusual name. However, his policies were reliably centrist. At one point, he even described himself a “moderate Republican.” Perhaps Michael Dukakis was the last progressive candidate the Democrats nominated.
Now, the same pundits who insisted Biden was finished after the first two contests are making the case that he needs to select a minority as his vice presidential running mate. Since Biden has already said that he’s going to choose a woman, the names that most often are floated are Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, and Stacey Abrams.
Let’s start with Kamala. What does she bring to the table? Nothing that Biden doesn’t already have. He is going to win California handily, with no effort. If choosing a person of color as VP is a way to energize the minority vote, Kamala is not that person. Minorities did not support her presidential campaign. She is extremely unlikable and was forced to drop out before the first contests.
Michelle Obama is among the most admired women in America, and there is little doubt that she would mobilize black voters. She was a popular First Lady. But she wasn’t part of the cabinet. Unlike Hillary, she never portrayed herself as a ‘co-president.’ Given Biden’s age and state of mind, it is quite possible that he won’t finish his first term in office. Therefore, his VP must be someone the majority of Americans are able to picture as Commander-in-Chief: someone with experience in elected office capable of taking over on day one. Moreover, I doubt Michelle Obama even wants to run for public office. She and Barack are set for life, and there is no reason for them to put themselves through the same scrutiny and pressure they faced as First Couple.
Stacey Abrams has made it no secret that she wants to be Biden’s running mate, and frankly, I find her honesty refreshing. She knows what she wants and she’s not shy about it. Abrams also seems to be a favorite among progressive pundits. The case for her centers primarily on her ability to mobilize key Democratic constituencies — or, as Benjamin Jealous stated in an opinion piece for CNN:
“As an activist, attorney and formidable political leader, she has proven time and time again her ability to break barriers for others.
And it’s time for Abrams to break one more barrier — as Joe Biden’s vice-presidential candidate. She has many of the strengths that can help Biden win in November, including popularity among key Democratic constituencies: progressives, young voters and voters of color — and the data backs it up.”
Let’s be blunt: Democrats already have a lock on all the constituencies mentioned by Mr. Jealous, and there is no reason to think that they will walk away this presidential year. I don’t understand why pundits seem to think that Biden will have problems mobilizing the black vote. After all, it was African Americans who gave him the nomination in the first place. Trump’s efforts to win black voters by bragging about the “lowest black unemployment in history” and criminal justice reform have not made much difference. The president still gets only single-digit support. Let’s be even more blunt: even if black voters were disillusioned with the Democratic Party, they are not going to vote for the Birther-In-Chief over Obama’s vice president. At some point, black voters may decide to vote for the GOP, but it will not be this cycle. Finally, Biden was able to win the nomination without making any concessions to progressives. Why exactly would he start making them now?
Above all, Democrats realize that there is only one swing vote in America, and that is the white vote. That is the reason, despite all the confident predictions by right-wingers that there was no way Democrats would nominate a white man, Joe Biden easily won the nomination. Democrats know they need to halt the defection of white working class voters to Trump. More importantly, they realize that the Republican-leaning white, suburban, female vote is up for grabs. Democrats have analyzed the polling data. They see that this voting bloc absolutely despises Trump. They don’t like his behavior, they don’t like the way he talks, they don’t like his infantile behavior or his bullying. They just don’t like him. In 2016, they held their noses and voted for him, primarily to avoid the nightmare of a Hillary Clinton presidency. Perhaps they were hoping Trump would grow in office, as they say. Two years later, there was no growth, and these voters delivered the House to the Democrats.
What the Democrats are looking for in a vice presidential pick is someone who does no harm: a centrist, a credible Commander-in-Chief, someone with the experience to be president on day one, someone who can help the Democrats reclaim the ‘Blue Wall’ in the Midwest, and someone who will appeal to Republican-leaning voters. Amy Klobuchar delivers on all counts, and that’s why she will be Biden’s running mate.
