For a brief moment, it appeared that Elizabeth Warren was on her way to capturing the Democratic nomination – the betting markets certainly believed so. As Bernie Sanders was off the campaign trail recovering from a heart attack, pundits speculated that the fight over the progressive vote in the Democratic Party was over and Warren was the winner. The Senator from Massachusetts found herself topping the RealClearPolitics poll average and was snapping up endorsements from unions and other key progressive groups. Everything seemed to be going her way until she stepped into the quagmire of how to fund her Medicare for All program. Newsweek reports:
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows national support for presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren has dropped to a new low since August.
Though the Massachusetts senator continues to do well in Iowa, she slipped to just 13 percent support among Democrats in Thursday’s survey. That compares with 26 percent for former Vice President Joe Biden and 19 percent for Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
A theme reminiscent of the 2012 Republican primaries is emerging. Back then, Mitt Romney was the front runner for the Republican nomination from the outset. Yet GOP voters were not enthused by him and kept looking for an alternative. It became a “flavor of the month” parade as different candidates briefly took the lead only to fall back behind Romney. Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum all had their day in the sun and pundits rushed to declare Mitt finished. Much the same way pundits today declared the Biden candidacy over at least a couple of times already when Sanders or Warren took the lead in polls.
The current Democratic primary contest resembles the 2012 GOP race in another way: late entries. In 2012, Texas Governor Rick Perry entered months after other candidates. In this cycle, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg declared their candidacy late in the process. Thus far, neither Deval nor Bloomberg have had much impact unlike Perry who zoomed to the top. Nevertheless, late entries are another symptom of the voters’ unhappiness with their choices.
Throughout the 2012 GOP primaries Romney wore the term “presumptive nominee” and maintained a solid base of support of around 25%. Biden is following Mitt’s footsteps. In 2012, polling showed that almost all Republican voters who did not favor Romney held him in second place behind their chosen candidate. As candidates dropped out, Romney slowly gained momentum. Biden has enjoyed a slight, similar bump after each of his major opponents took their turn in either first or second place.
Neither Mitt Romney in 2012 nor Joe Biden in 2020 have stirred the passions of their respective party’s base. As voting begins in 2020, the Democratic primary voters will continue to look for alternatives as Republicans did in 2012. In the end, Republicans settled for Romney just like the Democrats will eventually settle for Biden.
