As soon as exit polls showed Boris Johnson headed for a huge win over Jeremy Corbyn, Trump supporters took to Twitter declaring that the Tories winning means Donald Trump will be re-elected. The “logic” (using the term loosely) behind their bold assertion goes something like this: Britons voting to leave the European Union in 2016 foretold Trump winning in November. Therefore, Boris Johnson winning in landslide in 2019 means that Trump will win re-election in 2020. The tweets were soon followed by opinion pieces regurgitating the same argument with more opinion pieces sure to come in the coming weeks – there is no shortage of lazy punditry in America.
Boris Johnson is Britain’s Donald Trump, we are told. Both men have big personalities but that’s where the similarity ends. Boris Johnson is a strategic politician. Trump is impulsive. Boris expanded the base of his party. Trump has alienated Republican suburban women. Boris has the Tory establishment behind him. Trump would be removed from office if only Senate Republicans could hold a secret ballot. Boris had the media on his side as it attacked Corbyn as a terrorist supporter and anti-Semite. Does anyone think that Trump will have media on his side next year?
Even on policy, the two are far apart. Boris is 100% on board with the climate change agenda and supports a moratorium on fracking. Trump pulled America out of the Paris Agreement and mocks Greta Thunberg. Boris has pledged “the biggest ever cash boost” in the country’s publicly funded health care system. Trump promised to deliver “great healthcare” but it is unclear what he means. Boris is pro-choice. Trump is pro-life. The reality is that Boris is much closer to Joe Biden than Donald Trump.
In terms of electoral strategy, Boris and Trump are taking opposite approaches. Boris pushed for an early election to end the gridlock in Westminster and “Get Brexit Done!” Trump is planning to run on his achievements – lowest black unemployment, the stock market record at record levels and a booming economy. Boris asked for a majority so that he could “Unleash Britain’s Potential”. Trump claims to have achieved his agenda and wants to “Keep America Great”.
The only comparison between British and American politics during the last three years that has any merit is that in both countries losers refused to accept the results. More specifically, in Britain the Remainers refused to accept the results of the Brexit referendum and pushed for a second referendum. In America, the Democrats have sought to cancel Trump’s election through impeachment. But that’s where the similarity ends. The Brexit impasse gripped Britain for the last three years while the American public so far has ignored the impeachment proceedings. As mentioned, Brexit was the main issue in the British elections. The impeachment process is likely to be long over and forgotten by the time November rolls around. The British voters were presented a clear choice of getting Brexit done vs. a second referendum. There is no such monumental choice before the American people – never mind the rhetoric about socialism v. capitalism. By and large, both Republicans and Democrats agree on big issues such as open borders, free trade and never ending wars.
There is one aspect Boris and Trump share in common that I haven’t seen discussed. Both gentlemen were given an opportunity to transform their respective party. Trump had the opportunity to remake the GOP into a more populist, nationalist party with policies geared towards the middle class. The populist rhetoric notwithstanding, Trump has governed like a traditional Republican – deregulation, tax cuts and, of course, record military spending. Essentially, Trump used the white working class voters to further the interests of the GOP donor class. Will Boris do the same?
