After Kamala Harris was announced as Joe Biden’s running mate, Democrat pundits took to the airways and social media to declare that the Senator from California was going to bring excitement to the Democratic ticket. Thus far, that excitement has failed to materialize. Harris has been largely invisible and the one time the spotlight was on her – the vice presidential debate – she reminded voters why her presidential run ended before the first primary vote was cast.
Despite the fact that Harris was only able to garner low single digits support among Black Democrat primary voters, the pundits confidently declared that she was going to galvanize Black voter support for Biden. Thus far, there is no “galvanization” in sight. Today, Politico is reporting that the Democrats are struggling in Florida:
“One of the biggest shortcomings in 2016 was Hillary Clinton was unable to assemble the Obama coalition, especially among younger Black voters and especially among younger Black men. The Biden campaign has accurately identified that that’s a challenge they need to overcome this time,” said Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart.
“So Obama [going] there is probably one of the items on the checklist and why the Obama visit makes sense.”
According to TargetSmart’s analysis, Black voters ages 18 to 29 have cast 15.8 percent of the total ballots so far in Florida. That’s half a percentage point down from the same period in 2016. Bonier pointed out that the total vote of that group, along with nearly all other demographics in the state, is up in raw votes and that “it’s not as if the numbers are bad. There’s opportunity.”
Nine days from Election Day and Democrats are talking about “There’s opportunity” and are having to send Obama to Florida? Not a good sign.
Florida’s top Republican data analyst, Ryan Tyson can barely contain his glee:
“If they’re excited about matching Clinton turnout, I say, ‘please do,’” Tyson said. “The only turnout that can defeat Trump soundly is an Obama coalition turnout, a turnout of the ascendant electorate of young voters, especially African American and Latino. Biden isn’t getting that. That’s why they’re bringing Obama to Miami. It’s appropriate to call it a rescue mission by Obama.”
On election night, Florida will be the first indication as to whether it will be a short or very long night. A Biden win in Florida would effectively end Trump’s chances at re-election. Something that Obama referred to during his recent visit to the state:
“If you bring Florida home, this thing’s over,” Obama said. “I won’t have to wait for the results. I want to go to sleep knowing we’re going to have a president fighting on our behalf.”
Do you think is going to be a long or short night? Please comment below. Thanks.
