There was a brief and unnoticed moment during the last Democratic debate. In response to a question about stamina, Elizabeth Warren replied: “I will outwork, out organize and outlast anyone and that includes Donald Trump, Mike Pence or whoever the Republicans get stuck with.” Raising the prospect of anyone other than Donald Trump being the Republican candidate for president was odd and unexpected. After all, Trump being the GOP nominee is such a metaphysical certainty that several states have cancelled their Republican primary. Is Warren privy to insider information?
After the disastrous appearance of Robert Mueller before the House Judiciary Committee, all talk about impeachment disappeared from the headlines. At the time, it seemed that the Democrats had given up on removing the president from office and resigned themselves to defeating Trump at the polls. However, two months and a whistleblower report later, the impeachment train was back on and barreling down the tracks. The game changing allegation made by the whistleblower was that the president used foreign aid to pressure the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, to open an investigation into Joe Biden and his son Hunter.
As news of the whistleblower report hit the headlines, Nancy Pelosi announced that she was backing a formal impeachment inquiry. At the time, the speculation among the Washington intelligentsia was that she had lost control of the House and had been railroaded into making a call she avoided for months. Pelosi is a seasoned politician and understands the political risks of pursuing an impeachment that will end with an acquittal in the Senate. She was in Congress during the failed attempt to remove Bill Clinton from office which resulted in the GOP losing seats. It is one thing for the Rashidas, AOCs or Omars to pursue impeachment irrespective of the political consequences but why would Pelosi run such a risk?
What if Pelosi is taking a calculated risk? What if the Senate acquitting Trump is not a foregone conclusion? There have been reports that, if the Senate were to hold a secret vote, there would be enough Republican votes to remove Trump. Therefore, the obstacle to overcome is not finding the votes but rather to create enough political cover for twenty Republicans to cast them. What if the Democratic and Republican leaders have made a backroom deal? It doesn’t have to be a firm commitment by the GOP leadership to remove Trump – leaving the door open would be enough to justify Pelosi’s actions. Send the Articles of Impeachment our way, said the GOP Senate leaders, and we will try to remove that eyesore in the Oval Office. Sounds crazy? Let’s review a few additional facts.
After Trump released the transcript of the telephone call between him and Zelensky, the impeachment process seemed slow down as pundits, even those most hostile to the president, concluded there was no clear evidence of a quid pro quo. Nearly everyone agreed that Trump’s words and actions were inappropriate but to impeach him more evidence was needed. Even Pelosi began to hesitate as she ruled out holding a floor vote to formalize the impeachment proceedings. That’s when Mick Mulvaney decided to give Democrats a helping hand. During a press conference, he stated that Trump did try to use aid to pressure Ukraine and that quid pro quo arrangements were not unusual. He later tried to row back his comments but the damage was done. An innocent slip or part of a larger plan?
A couple of days before Mulvaney’s slip, Mitch McConnell let the news out that he was preparing the Senate for the upcoming impeachment trial. He even went so far as to establish a deadline of completing the trial by Christmas. Maybe this is just McConnell acknowledging the reality that the Democrats have the votes and intention to impeach Trump irrespective of facts. Or perhaps, combined with Mulvaney’s actions, part of a plan to slowly prepare Republican voters for the removal of the president. First step, get them accustomed to the idea that Trump will be impeached and a trial will be held. Later, work on justifying Republican Senators voting to remove him. John Kasich has already started the process by backing impeachment. Can Jeff Flake and others be far behind?
Republicans in the Senate have been very quiet as far as defending Trump in stark contrast with the House Republicans who have been staging a series of antics. Minority Leader McCarthy knows that the Democrats do not need one GOP vote to get the Articles of Impeachment approved – might as well put on a show for the Trump supporters and use the occasion to fill campaign coffers. In the Senate, only Lindsay Graham has been playing the part of Trump’s vocal defender. He is up for re-election and, besides, what has been the result of Graham’s activities? The House voted on rules guiding a formal impeachment inquiry. More transparency will only give the inquiry more legitimacy. Neither the antics of the House Republicans nor Graham’s grandstanding derail the impeachment train.
It’s not a secret that the GOP establishment never wanted Trump and still don’t want him. Beyond finding his behavior objectionable, they absolutely despise the policies he represents. For the last three years, the GOP establishment has used Trump to advance their beloved tax cuts and military spending. They have used him for fundraising but they never accepted him. They will never accept him. Of course, they could try to defeat him in the primary. That would be the honorable but more difficult path. The GOP establishment not only wants Trump gone, they want to go back to the party of the Bushes and there is no broad constituency for that among Republican grassroots. Impeachment is a better bet to get rid of Trump.
